Naira Holds Steady at N1,370 as CBN Watches Market

LAGOS — The Nigerian naira traded at around N1,370 to the United States dollar in the official market on Thursday as the Central Bank of Nigeria continued to monitor foreign exchange demand. Analysts say the currency has shown remarkable stability compared to the volatility of early 2025.

According to market data, the official exchange rate stood at approximately N1,371.01 against the dollar on Thursday. In the parallel market, rates varied slightly across Lagos, Abuja, and Kano, with dealers reporting mild pressure from importers seeking foreign currency.

The naira’s relative stability is a significant improvement from early 2025 when the official rate spiked above N1,600 per dollar. Currency analysts point to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery as a major driver of the improvement, noting that the facility has reduced Nigeria’s need to spend foreign exchange on fuel imports.

Nairametrics analyst Emeka Okafor described the trend as encouraging but cautioned against overconfidence. “The Dangote Refinery has helped reduce pressure on the naira. But Nigeria still has a large budget deficit and continues to borrow heavily. Stability has given us time, not a solution,” Okafor said.

The Central Bank of Nigeria has also intensified its market surveillance and intervention operations in recent months. The bank has worked to increase foreign exchange liquidity and crack down on speculative trading that drives up demand artificially.

Nigeria’s foreign reserves have grown modestly, rising from $32.6 billion to $33.8 billion following the ramp-up of the Dangote Refinery’s operations. The refinery has also helped Nigeria record a trade surplus, reducing dependence on crude swaps and direct fuel imports.

Despite the positive trend, Nigeria’s 2026 budget still carries a deficit of around N23 to 24 trillion. The government has outlined plans to borrow N29 trillion this year to fund spending. Economists warn that this level of borrowing remains a long-term risk to economic stability.

The Nigerian Stock Exchange also reflected investor optimism. The NGX All-Share Index continued its upward trend this week, with the stock market’s capitalization surpassing N160 trillion, a new record for Nigeria’s equity market.

Analysts say the real test for the naira will come in the second half of 2026, when global oil price movements and domestic inflation trends will play a larger role in determining the currency’s direction.