Kwara APC Consensus Deal Collapses, Triggers Surprise Primary Winner

ILORIN — The Kwara State APC’s carefully arranged consensus deal for its governorship primary collapsed within 24 hours of being announced, triggering a surprise winner in the exercise and fresh debate about zoning and internal democracy in the party. The Punch Newspapers reported the unravelling of the deal in a detailed analysis published on Tuesday.

Party leaders had initially announced a consensus arrangement that was expected to produce a specific candidate without a contested primary. However, aspirants who felt excluded from the arrangement rejected the deal and insisted on a direct vote. The contest proceeded, producing an unexpected winner that has left several camps in the state dissatisfied.

The winning candidate’s identity and vote margins have not been fully disclosed in official party communications as of Tuesday morning. Sources within the Kwara APC said the outcome has created internal tension between the faction that backed the original consensus arrangement and those who pushed for a contested vote.

Kwara APC State Chairman Abdullahi Samari said the party will work to reconcile all camps following the primary. He said internal disagreements are normal in a competitive party and that the APC will emerge united heading into the 2027 election.

The Zoning Controversy

At the heart of the Kwara APC dispute is the question of zoning. The state has traditionally rotated the governorship between its senatorial zones. Different factions in the party disagree about which zone’s turn it is for the 2027 governorship. The collapsed consensus deal was partly an attempt to manage this disagreement through backroom negotiation rather than open competition.

When the deal fell apart, the zoning disagreement became the central fault line in the contested primary. Aspirants from different zones used the collapse of consensus to argue that a direct primary was the only fair way to resolve a dispute their zones felt was being decided in their disfavour.

Furthermore, Kwara State politics has been particularly volatile in recent years. The state switched from PDP to APC in 2019 and Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq has governed since then. With AbdulRazaq’s second and final term approaching, the question of succession has created significant political jostling.

What Comes Next

Aggrieved aspirants from the Kwara primary are expected to file petitions with the APC’s internal appeal committee. The May 30 INEC deadline creates extreme time pressure for any resolution. Candidates whose appeals are not resolved before that date risk being shut out of the 2027 ballot entirely.

The Labour Party and PDP in Kwara are watching the APC’s internal chaos with interest. Both parties are hoping that APC divisions will give them an opportunity to mount a more competitive challenge in the 2027 governorship contest than they were able to mount in 2019 or 2023.

Analysts say Kwara’s experience with consensus collapse is a broader lesson for Nigerian party politics. Backroom deals that exclude aspirants from genuine participation tend to create more instability than they prevent. Transparent, rules-based primaries, while messier in the short term, typically produce more accepted outcomes.