Nigeria Records $480m Trade Surplus in January, Up 220%

LAGOS — Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of $480 million in January 2026, according to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria. This represents a 220 percent increase from the $150 million surplus recorded in December 2025. The surge was driven by a record jump in export receipts, largely from petroleum products.

Export receipts rose by 4.46 percent to $4.68 billion in January. This is the highest monthly export figure Nigeria has ever recorded. Oil and gas products accounted for 83.12 percent of total export earnings, confirming Nigeria’s continued dependence on hydrocarbon revenues.

The CBN reported the figures in its January 2026 Monthly Economic Report. The report noted that import bills also increased, rising 3.0 percent to $4.77 billion. However, the higher export earnings outpaced imports, producing the positive surplus.

“Provisional data indicated that the trade surplus rose to $480 million from $150 million in the preceding month. The higher surplus was driven by the 4.46 percent increase in exports to $4.68 billion, following the increase in the export of petroleum products,” the CBN stated.

Dangote Refinery Effect

The record export performance is partly attributed to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s ramp-up to near-full capacity. The refinery has reduced Nigeria’s need to import refined products while also producing petroleum products for export. This dual effect has dramatically improved Nigeria’s trade balance.

In addition, Nigeria’s oil production reached 1.66 million barrels per day in recent months, generating strong crude export revenues. The combination of higher crude production and domestic refining capacity is the foundation of the improved trade position.

However, analysts warn that Nigeria must diversify its export base to sustain the surplus long-term. Petroleum products currently dominate exports by a wide margin. Agricultural products, manufactured goods, and services exports remain far below their potential.

Macro Implications

A strong trade surplus supports the naira by increasing the supply of foreign currency in the economy. It also helps build Nigeria’s external reserves, which the government can use to defend the currency during periods of market pressure.

Furthermore, the surplus strengthens Nigeria’s position in international credit markets. S&P Global cited Nigeria’s improved current account position in its recent credit rating upgrade from B-minus to B. A sustained trade surplus will support further improvements in Nigeria’s sovereign credit profile.

Market economists say January’s figures are encouraging but should be seen in context. Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, including infrastructure deficits, security challenges, and dependence on oil, still limit the long-term sustainability of the current trade performance. Diversification of the export base remains the biggest outstanding challenge.