LAGOS — Nigeria’s spending on food imports declined by 7.4 percent year-on-year to $2.34 billion in 2025, signalling a moderation in the country’s dependence on imported food despite a sharp 28 percent increase in overall import expenditure. Vanguard reported the trade figures on Wednesday.
The decline in food import spending comes against the backdrop of government policies promoting local food production including TVET programs for agricultural skill development, improved fertiliser access, and the Anchor Borrowers Programme. Analysts said the Dangote Refinery’s role in reducing fuel costs has also reduced the transportation cost burden on Nigerian farmers.
However, analysts cautioned that the reduced food import bill should not be confused with food security. Thirty-five million Nigerians still face acute hunger between June and August 2026. The reduction in imports partly reflects reduced purchasing power, not just increased local production.
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Import Substitution Progress
Nigeria has been pursuing import substitution policies in agriculture for years. Progress has been uneven. Rice production has improved significantly, reducing the country’s massive rice import bill. However, wheat, fish, dairy, and several other food categories still rely heavily on imports.
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s restriction on foreign exchange for certain food imports has also contributed to the reduced import figure. Some categories simply became too expensive to import when the naira weakened in 2023 and 2024, forcing both consumers and processors to seek local alternatives.
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Trade economists said sustained reduction of the food import bill requires continued investment in agricultural infrastructure, irrigation, storage, and processing capacity. Short-term currency-driven import substitution is reversible. Structural agricultural development is permanent and provides a more reliable foundation for food security.
