Nigeria’s merchandise trade surplus surged by 340.88 per cent to N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, driven by a sharp rise in crude oil export earnings and a significant decline in petroleum product imports, according to the Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, June 9, 2026.
Total merchandise trade stood at N34.79 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, with exports accounting for N21.17 trillion and imports amounting to N13.62 trillion. The positive trade balance of N7.55 trillion represented a dramatic improvement compared to the preceding quarter and a 91 per cent year-on-year increase compared to the same period in 2025, when the trade surplus stood at N3.95 trillion.
The NBS attributed the improvement primarily to two factors. First, crude oil exports rose, with mineral products valued at N18.16 trillion accounting for 85.77 per cent of total exports. Crude oil alone generated N11.20 trillion, representing 52.9 per cent of all exports. Second, imports declined sharply by 18.17 per cent compared to Q1 2025 and by 21.05 per cent compared to the preceding quarter, as petroleum product imports fell significantly.
Dangote Refinery Cuts Import Bill
The sharp decline in petroleum product imports is directly linked to the ramp-up of domestic refining capacity, particularly at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. The refinery began producing significant volumes of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel in late 2024 and has progressively displaced imported refined petroleum products, reducing the foreign exchange demand that fuel imports previously generated.
In 2024, Nigeria’s fuel import bill stood at approximately N14.06 trillion annually, a figure that has been dramatically reduced as domestic refining has scaled up. Petroleum products now account for only N2.65 trillion of the Q1 2026 import bill, compared to far higher levels in previous years. The CBN’s current account balance is projected to rise to $18.81 billion in 2026, up from $16.94 billion in 2025, reflecting the sustained improvement in Nigeria’s trade position.
However, NBS analysts noted that Nigeria’s trade performance remains heavily dependent on global oil prices and production volumes, making the trade surplus vulnerable to external shocks. Furthermore, the Proshare composite Purchasing Managers Index held in contraction territory at 49.6 in June, signalling that while the external trade account is improving, domestic business conditions have not yet crossed into consistent expansion territory. Still, the macro picture has clearly improved compared to the crisis conditions of 2023 and 2024. Notably, Europe remained the leading destination for Nigerian exports, accounting for N7.93 trillion or 37.44 per cent of total exports, followed by Asia with N6.42 trillion. Consequently, Nigeria’s export geography continues to be shaped by its oil trade relationships rather than a diversified multi-sector export portfolio.
Imports Decline Reflects Refining Progress
Meanwhile, the total import bill of N13.62 trillion was the lowest recorded for a first quarter in several years, as lower fuel imports offset continued demand for machinery and equipment, which remained the largest import category at N5.01 trillion or 36.79 per cent of total imports. In addition, China retained its position as Nigeria’s largest source of imports, accounting for a significant share of the machinery, equipment, and manufactured goods entering the country. As a result, the structural shift in Nigeria’s trade balance is real but remains concentrated in the energy sector, with broader trade diversification still a medium-term objective rather than a current reality.
Discover more from News247 Nigeria
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
